Monday, August 24, 2009

Cacca Global Economy

The following email from my dear friend Pier was received some 11 hours ago:

"you have disabled comments, so I am emailing you.
What do you think will be DJ top ? And when? Do you foresee a sharp drop in 3rd and 4th quarter 2009?
If yes, what is your call for a bottom?"

Dear Pier, I am sure that you know that I know that you know that the global economy rests mainly on the shoulder of the american consumer spending. Those nice people in the young continent who spend so much money they dont have, represent one quarter of the world economy. And now what they dont have is far more greater of what they didn't have back in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Does it make sense?

Accordingly, what can we expect? Can the global economy moves forward without them, without further stimulus plans, and without further easy-credit policies? I doubt it velllly much.

Moreover, it seems that no one now talks about the remaining trillions of US $ in dirty toxic assests which are still hidden by the american famous financial institutions and are expected to be written down soon.

Well, to answer your questions I had to call for a board meeting. It is the opinion of the CCE (Cacca Chief Economist) that we had somehow hit the DJ top of 9625 today August 24th. Furthermore, the CCE has strongly confirmed that breaking the 10000 mark this year will never happen in Cacca's lifetime.

Do I foresee a sharp drop in the 3rd and 4th quarter? After screening all conditions thru our AMAC (Advanced Monkey Analyzer Calculator) we could expect a nice drop from the 9500 level to a new resistance around 8700 during September. AMAC foresees the possibility of a further fall to the 7700 level before the return of the Bulls late November/early December.

What is my call for a bottom? A bottom is a kinda of a butt but in your case an absolute Butt would be around the 7200 in best cases.

If you take a look at our "Portfolio" you will realize that it has been customized on AMAC's soothsaying.

Have a wonderful day and stop pestering your Cacca.

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