FAQs

Some of you dear followers have problems to post your comments and I keep getting your Qs thru emails. Inconvenience regretted. Well, I just received the following from Pier:

Q: "Dear Mister Cacca, I have noticed little activity on your blog lately, can you tell us your vision of the markets now? Is UNG bound to 5$ ? Is NG going to hold above 2$ ? Where are gold and silver heading? And OIL?"

A: In brief, our famous AMAC strongly believes that the market will start being bearish on Oil, Gold and Silver and bullish on NG.

History gave us the absolute proof that each time the NG is so dirty cheap it rebounds 76% of its low in less than 3 months. So, hold on.

Gold reached the 998 level yesterday. In this connection, I am pleased to reiterate our view posted on August 30th "AMAC still predicts the 998 - 1010 level in the very near future before significant retreat to 800/820 level.".

We are waiting another 8% rally for Silver before we recommand the AGQ Oct 50 PUT, symbol +AGQVJ.

Finally, you are kindly reminded that 95% of short term investment end in disaster, so be very careful and have a good trading day.

AMAC Options Basics

The following email has been received on August 29th:
"Your spreadsheet is a bit confusing, it's not clear which positions are open and which ones you have already closed. I would appreciate also if you could send an alert to close a position, or an alert when your open order has triggered....
I think it would be nice to move closed positions in a separate area...
your always follower and worshiper
Banana Joe"

Dear Banana Joe, thank you for your email. Before answering your questions, let me take you through our Options Strategy and Procedures step by step:

1. During the third week of each month, we do run our AMAC for identifying the best promising options. If possible, we usually select:

• 4 options for those conservatives followers with expiration dates not less than 2 calendar Options months, and
• 4 for those speculatives followers with one month expiration, plus
• 3 to 4 other options for All followers;

2. Hence, from the initial published spreadsheet you can see:

• the Symbol and description of each Option;
• the value of each Option at the date of inception;
• the Recommended buy price under the column "Reco at $";
• and the Status of each Option which is at this stage is "Open";

3. When our Recommended price is met the Status changes from "Open" to "Trig'd" and is then highlighted by related color;
4. Only when any Status changes, an updated spreadsheet is published after the closing bell with the Last Price, the High and Low during this specific day;
5. Alerts will be posted in the following cases when:

• a stop loss is necessary;
• we recommend the cancellation of an "Open" option (not yet triggered). This will be reflected in the same day in our spreadsheet and then it will be deleted on the following day;
• we recommend the "Close Price" (this alert will be given at least one day in advance);

6. Subsequently when a position is closed, an updated spreadsheet will be posted at the end of the trading day with the related profit and loss;

I hope the above answers all your questions otherwise please don't hesitate to let me know. Thank you and good trading week.

Cacca Global Economy

The following email from my dear friend Pier was received some 11 hours ago:

"you have disabled comments, so I am emailing you.
What do you think will be DJ top ? And when? Do you foresee a sharp drop in 3rd and 4th quarter 2009?
If yes, what is your call for a bottom?"

Dear Pier, I am sure that you know that I know that you know that the global economy rests mainly on the shoulder of the american consumer spending. Those nice people in the young continent who spend so much money they dont have, represent one quarter of the world economy. And now what they dont have is far more greater of what they didn't have back in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Does it make sense?

Accordingly, what can we expect? Can the global economy moves forward without them, without further stimulus plans, and without further easy-credit policies? I doubt it velllly much.

Moreover, it seems that no one now talks about the remaining trillions of US $ in dirty toxic assests which are still hidden by the american famous financial institutions and are expected to be written down soon.

Well, to answer your questions I had to call for a board meeting. It is the opinion of the CCE (Cacca Chief Economist) that we had somehow hit the DJ top of 9625 today August 24th. Furthermore, the CCE has strongly confirmed that breaking the 10000 mark this year will never happen in Cacca's lifetime.

Do I foresee a sharp drop in the 3rd and 4th quarter? After screening all conditions thru our AMAC (Advanced Monkey Analyzer Calculator) we could expect a nice drop from the 9500 level to a new resistance around 8700 during September. AMAC foresees the possibility of a further fall to the 7700 level before the return of the Bulls late November/early December.

What is my call for a bottom? A bottom is a kinda of a butt but in your case an absolute Butt would be around the 7200 in best cases.

If you take a look at our "Portfolio" you will realize that it has been customized on AMAC's soothsaying.

Have a wonderful day and stop pestering your Cacca.

Gold Outlook

On Aug 23, in his comment Pierre said...
"dear Caccaman, do you have any vision on the future of GOLD?"

In this connection dear Pierre, please be informed that after taking into serious consideration the zombie dollar, the road to no recovery, and in particular all the nonsense of the so-called analysts, economists, strategists, Hedge Funds CEOs, traders, speculators, Noble and Non-Nobel Prize Award winners, in addition to all those who send you very lengthy crooked emails offering you free trial subscriptions for juicy returns, etcetera etcetera, I have decided to call most of my fortune tellers in Siberia, South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia, Botswana and Alaska.

Happily, the birth of a new Star in Boise brought them all to agree on the fact that we should soon expect a run on the gold. Hence, it will not be a surprise to see the 998 - 1010 in the very near future which brings the AMAC to recommend the following Options:

Conservative Followers: GLD Oct 100 PUT (+GLDVV) for $320 or less;
Speculative Followers: GLD Oct 95 PUT (+GLDVQ) for $160 or less.

Dont do it, don't ever believe any of the above nonsense, and please don't ever come back. Your own risk.

Week in Review - August 17/21 2009

1. Sugar
Sugar hit our entry SHORT price target of 22.15, Friday close 21.84.

2. NG
NG also did hit our bottom forcast of 2.82 thus we are now going LONG. Friday close 2.804.

3. UNG
Friday high 11.74, low 11.29, close 11.35;
New 52wk lows 11.42 and 11.29 (previous 11.91);
For long term investment we still insist on both our entry buy targets of 11.22 and 10.71. Patience.

4. Nymex
Friday high 74.35, low 73.51, close 73.89;
As predicted, the zombie dollar brought the benedetto Nymex to break thru the June 11th high of 74.31. Hence, according to AMAC we should see a + 76.50 sometime next week before we can see any significant fall.

Cacca State of the Nat.... Gas (Update #2)

NG (Natural Gas - NG, Nymex) - UNG (United States Natural Gas)

NG tumbled to 7 year low and closed at 2.945 (-5.6%)

However, we are still waiting our bottom forecast of 2.82/2.85 (or less) before we make our LONG move (please go back to update #1).

UNG @ $ 11.51 (today's closing price) with a new 52 weeklow of $ 11.42

As I said earlier, I think it would be a dirty cheap stock to buy (long term investment) when and if it breaks our first target of 11.22 and certainly our second target of 10.71.

UNG related Recommended OPTIONS:
Conservative followers: UNG Jan 13 CALL (+UNYAM) for $ 95.00 or less
Speculative followers: UNG Oct 12 CALL (+UNYJL) for $ 75.00 or less

PS.: Again, please don't listen to the above nonsense.

Cacca first "Best Seller" Play - Sugar Honey (Update #2)

Good news, Sugar Honey hit our entry SHORT price target of 22.15 yesterday (Wed, Aug 19th 09) and closed at $ 22.67.

Today it plunged 3.09% to close at 21.97. Not bad at all, and we are in the money.

Hence I still recommend to keep our 24.59 Stoploss limit as it is and close 50% of the positions @ or around 20.10, a further 20% @ or around 19.20 leaving the last 30% for a good solid 18.30.

Best of luck.

Cacca Situation Room - Oil (Cont'd)

Geez morning everyone, crude in storage fell by 8.4 million barrels last week and our beloved Nymex jumped $3.23 to settle at $72.42.

Now, its time to take into serious consideration the blah blah blah we hear and watch all daylong on Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, BBC, CCB, TTMOM, VVAZ e compagnia bella on the zombie dollar.

Are we going to see the GBP again at 1.80, 1.92, and 2.05 very soon? Doubt it vellllly much... However, some flushing, bluffing, speculation and manipulation are verosimile these few coming weeks otherwise how Wall Street traders can have lunch with a $ 4000.00 bottle of 1926 red wine. Hence, we will wait for the zombie dollar till it brings the benedetto Nymex to break thru the June 11th high of 74.31 which according to the AMAC (Advanced Monkey Analyser Calculator) should happened not later than next Tuesday, Aug 25th. Shall we see a + 76.50?

Thus, we believe that the best play of the week would be a nice red USO October $ 41 PUT (+USOVI) recommended at $ 190.00 and not a single penny more. Those smart can have it for 165 including tips. Your risk.

Have a wonderful Thursday and don't believe anything I tell you.

Cacca State of the Nat.... Gas (Update #1)

NG (Natural Gas - NG, Nymex) - UNG (United States Natural Gas)

Although NG closed today @ 3.124 I am still very comfortable with the two entry price targets I have contemplated long time ago ($ 3.30 and $ 3.20) and am still very okisho.

However as I said earlier in this blog, it is not farfetched to see a new bottom at $ 2.82 - 2.85 before bouncing back to $ 4.55 - 4.80 by December 2009. If it does, then we will double our positions.

UNG @ $ 12.01 (Wed, Aug 19th closing price) - 52 weeklow $ 11.91 July 13th 09

For two days now its been in the range of 12.20/12.00. Many expect it to break its 52 weeklow of 11.91. If it does then we will wait till it hit our first target price of 11.22 (everyone on his own, and everyone chooses his convenient entry point). Have fun.

Ciao e sogni d'oro.
PS.: Again, please don't listen to the above nonsense.

Cacca first "Best Seller" Play - Sugar Honey (Update # 1)

Good news/bad news, Sugar Honey hit our entry SHORT price target of 22.15 today (Wed, Aug 19th 09) and closed at $ 22.67.

Well, lets keep our 24.59 Stoploss limit as it is and close 50% of the positions @ or around 20.10, a further 20% @ or around 19.20 leaving the last 30% for a good solid 18.30.

Have fun.

For a few more Chiquitas

Purpose: Lifetime Green Chiquitas for your little Monkeys
Method: Pick and be Very Patient
Type: Long Term Portfolio (Not for day traders)
Period: 2-3 years (or earlier)

A. Symbol - closing price on Monday August 17th 2009 - Description
B. Recommended First Buy Target Price (40% of intended shares)
C. Recommended Second Buy Target Price (60% of intended shares)
D. Recommended Sell Target Price (55% of total shares)

ex.: a / b / c / d

1. C 4.00 - Citigroup Inc / $ 3.05 / $ 2.81 / $ 20.50
2. FRE 1.28 - Freddie Mac / $ 0.62 / $ 0.56 / $ 4.80
3. ABK 0.95 - Ambac Fincl. Group / $ 0.57 / $ 0.51 / $ 7.90
4. MBI 5.00 - MBIA Inc / $ 3.00 / $ 2.65 / $ 19.00
5. AMD 3.55 - Advanced Micro D. / $ 2.60 / $ 2.25 / $ 14.90
6. KLAC 29.62 - KLA-Tencor C. / $ 16.50 / $ 14.81 / $ 52.00
7. RMBS 16.86 - Rambus Inc. / $ 9.30 / $ 7.60 / $ 22.00
8. ZOLT 8.49 - Zoltec Companies Inc. / $ 6.80 / $ 5.90 / $ 24.00
9. MON 80.02 - Monsanto Co. / $ 66.00 / $ 62.10 / $ 142.00
10. HNSN 3.45 - Hansen Med. Inc. / $ 2.60 / $ 2.25 / $ 15.90
11. UNG 12.12 - United States N. G. / $ 11.22 / $ 10.71 / $ 24.00
12. LVS 12.27 - Las Vegas Sands C. / $ 6.60 / $ 5.60 / $ 32.00
13. PCX 8.61 - Patriot Coal Corp C. / 5.60 / $ 4.90 / $ 31.00

14. DRYS 5.84 - Dryships Inc SHS / $ 4.80 / $ 4.00 / $ 29.00

Buffet, no buffet, dont buffet me. Long Live The Queen.

Cacca State of the Nat.... Gas

NG (Natural Gas - NG, Nymex) - UNG (United States Natural Gas)

NG, is it oversold or undervalued at $ 3.238 (Friday, Aug 14th closing price)?

2001 Recession http://futures.tradingcharts.com/old_hist_NG20023.html

1. August 2001, NG did break the $ 3.00 benchmark southward;
2. From January to March 2002 hanging below the $2.50 (2.30 - 2.50);
3. From March to September 2002 in the range of 2.60 - 3.70;
4. in July 2008 it topped the $ 13.00 when Oil was at $147.50 http://futures.tradingcharts.com/hist_NG.html.

Two weeks ago, I was very comfortable with two entry price targets I have contemplated: $ 3.30 and $ 3.20 which for me are still okisho.

However, going back to my advanced monkey analyser calculator which is a kinda of a derivative for the most progressive ASC methods and taking all circumstances into consideration (speculation, dirty specualtion, flush and flash trading, US dollar strength, the road to recovery, etc..) I found out that it is not farfetched to see a new bottom at $ 2.82 - 2.85 before bouncing back to $ 4.55 - 4.80 by December 2009. Of course if I want to go LONG on NG, I would never advice myself nor any of my stubborn followers to wait for such dream to come true. Catch it if you can tho.

UNG @ $ 12.49 (Friday, Aug 14th closing price) - 52 weeklow $ 11.91 on July 13th 2009

On April 23rd this year, I bought UNG at 13.98. Few hours later I sold it at $ 13.6405, a loss of a 2.24%. A real disaster. This time, I will be waiting it to double bottom (don't ask me what does it mean). Hence, not thinking of buying before it breaks the $ 11.22 target and possibly the $ 10.71 further down the road.

Ciao, buonanotte e chi si e visto si e visto.

PS.: Please don't listen to the above nonsense.

Cacca first "Best Seller" Play - Sugar Honey

No, it is neither a Book nor a Broadway Play. It's a "Sugar Honey" Play on Wall Street. Sugar at its 30 years high. Mamma mia, mamma tua... Thank God I am using "Pure tasting low calorie sweetener, Diet-Sweet aspartame 20 mg/T, 1 tablet equals a teaspoonful of sugar in taste and only 0.4 calorie", so they claim. Well after lots of consideration, I am taking all the sugar I have in my kitchen and going to sell it in the nearest flea market.

Last Thursday Augst 13th, Sugar hit 23.32 and closed at 22.21. Next day, Friday Aug 14th it did close at 21.98 down 1.04% - no big deal (http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart.php?cbase=SU&market=SB&cterm=A9).

Mmmm, boh, I think I am going first thing in the morning to SHORT "Sugar Honey" at or around 22.00/22.15 (with Stoploss at 24.59) and if I dont lose the kitchen I will close 50% of my positions @ or around 20.10 and a further 20% @ or around 19.20 leaving my last 30% for a good solid 18.30.

Cacca Situation Room - Oil

Once upon the time in America, back in the fourth quarter of 2007 a sweet and sour recession was clear in the air except for one giant institution "SilverWoman" and by no means I am referring to "Goldman". But having named Goldman Sachs, it comes to my mind how did they unleashed their Secrets 007s late 2007/early 2008 in all TVs, newsletters, emails and all other mass media claiming "Peak Oil" and the drying of most if not 49% of the Oil Wells in the OPEC producing countries starting with Saudi Arabia and naming specific wells' locations. Everyone from here to China and back was joining their very well synchronized plan: Oil will certainly reach US 200.00/250.00 by end of 2008.

I keep wondering till now, what happened during the first 7 months of 2008 (in full recession) which brought the oil price to $ 147.50 was there a great surge in oil demand regardless of the hundred of thousands of factories closure, bankruptcy, etc.. Or was there a great shortage in Supply? Neither one happened, are you sure?

Then 5 months later, Nymex went down to around $ 46.00 on Dec 24th 2008 wowww.... Is that speculation? Trading? Some on Main Street are convinced that it is a pure Legalized Criminal Theft. But hey Cacca Bello, it went even further down to $33.20 on Jan 15 2009. Gosh, from $147.50 to $33.20 in 6 months. Who did SHORT the Nymex from its high to its low and how many billions of US $ were cahsed in and secretly transferred to UBS in Switzerland? However, nervermind its history now and no one cares, isn't still a free market.

The New Musical:

"The Cost of a Barrel of Oil"

Every Oil Guru has agreed that the cost varies between US$48.00 and US$76.00 depends on the producing country.

Accordingly, being in the Monkey Business almost all my life I had some nightmares (by no means I was ever involved in the Oil Industry, but what I meant by "Monkey Business" is that I found myself in the way of all kind of genius crooks including and not limited to the cream of the white-collars scums in high ranking posts).

Thus, I was wondering and wondering then I kept on wondering again and again about the virtual cost I didn't pay for the imaginary Oil Well in my non-existent backyard. A quick calculation based on a 200,000 barrel a day gives me a yearly production of 52 Million Barrel/year after having shut it down every weekend so I can enjoy time with my family or a yearly production of 72.8 Mil barrel if I let it pumps out on Saturdays and Sundays. Wowww boy. After a thorough cost calculation I found out that each barrel of oil costs me:

1. Basic real actual/factual cost is US $ 0.943/brl; plus
2. US $ 0.867/brl for direct overseas bribes and monkey business kinda part of the PR; plus
3. US $ 0.569/brl for other forms of bribes/PR under the HLOGA
   (Honest Leadership and Open Government Act) namely Lobbying Act; plus
4. US $ 0.231/brl for maintaining 2 girl friends (one on each US coast) for each executive officer in my oil company and there are not less than 150 high ranking Officers. Each GF in a US $ 4 Mil home plus a monthly reward of US$ 200,000.00; plus
5. US $ 0.36/brl undisclosed secret Washington related expenses.

Then, I realized that I must be wrong if my total cost per barrel is only US $ 2.97 not even US $3.00 when it costs the bigger smarter oil companies between $48.00 and $76.00. But hey, wait a minute....

"...Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel..." by Mister R. Prechter, see http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aox.KsSOudpA

but who is that Mister Robert Prechter ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Prechter )

Sorry guys, bedtime, nanna