Some of you dear followers have problems to post your comments and I keep getting your Qs thru emails. Inconvenience regretted. Well, I just received the following from Pier:
Q: "Dear Mister Cacca, I have noticed little activity on your blog lately, can you tell us your vision of the markets now? Is UNG bound to 5$ ? Is NG going to hold above 2$ ? Where are gold and silver heading? And OIL?"
A: In brief, our famous AMAC strongly believes that the market will start being bearish on Oil, Gold and Silver and bullish on NG.
History gave us the absolute proof that each time the NG is so dirty cheap it rebounds 76% of its low in less than 3 months. So, hold on.
Gold reached the 998 level yesterday. In this connection, I am pleased to reiterate our view posted on August 30th "AMAC still predicts the 998 - 1010 level in the very near future before significant retreat to 800/820 level.".
We are waiting another 8% rally for Silver before we recommand the AGQ Oct 50 PUT, symbol +AGQVJ.
Finally, you are kindly reminded that 95% of short term investment end in disaster, so be very careful and have a good trading day.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
AMAC Options Basics
The following email has been received on August 29th:
"Your spreadsheet is a bit confusing, it's not clear which positions are open and which ones you have already closed. I would appreciate also if you could send an alert to close a position, or an alert when your open order has triggered....
I think it would be nice to move closed positions in a separate area...
your always follower and worshiper
Banana Joe"
Dear Banana Joe, thank you for your email. Before answering your questions, let me take you through our Options Strategy and Procedures step by step:
1. During the third week of each month, we do run our AMAC for identifying the best promising options. If possible, we usually select:
4. Only when any Status changes, an updated spreadsheet is published after the closing bell with the Last Price, the High and Low during this specific day;
5. Alerts will be posted in the following cases when:
I hope the above answers all your questions otherwise please don't hesitate to let me know. Thank you and good trading week.
"Your spreadsheet is a bit confusing, it's not clear which positions are open and which ones you have already closed. I would appreciate also if you could send an alert to close a position, or an alert when your open order has triggered....
I think it would be nice to move closed positions in a separate area...
your always follower and worshiper
Banana Joe"
Dear Banana Joe, thank you for your email. Before answering your questions, let me take you through our Options Strategy and Procedures step by step:
1. During the third week of each month, we do run our AMAC for identifying the best promising options. If possible, we usually select:
- 4 options for those conservatives followers with expiration dates not less than 2 calendar Options months, and
- 4 for those speculatives followers with one month expiration, plus
- 3 to 4 other options for All followers;
- the Symbol and description of each Option;
- the value of each Option at the date of inception;
- the Recommended buy price under the column "Reco at $";
- and the Status of each Option which is at this stage is "Open";
4. Only when any Status changes, an updated spreadsheet is published after the closing bell with the Last Price, the High and Low during this specific day;
5. Alerts will be posted in the following cases when:
- a stop loss is necessary;
- we recommend the cancellation of an "Open" option (not yet triggered). This will be reflected in the same day in our spreadsheet and then it will be deleted on the following day;
- we recommend the "Close Price" (this alert will be given at least one day in advance);
I hope the above answers all your questions otherwise please don't hesitate to let me know. Thank you and good trading week.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Cacca Global Economy
The following email from my dear friend Pier was received some 11 hours ago:
"you have disabled comments, so I am emailing you.
What do you think will be DJ top ? And when? Do you foresee a sharp drop in 3rd and 4th quarter 2009?
If yes, what is your call for a bottom?"
Dear Pier, I am sure that you know that I know that you know that the global economy rests mainly on the shoulder of the american consumer spending. Those nice people in the young continent who spend so much money they dont have, represent one quarter of the world economy. And now what they dont have is far more greater of what they didn't have back in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Does it make sense?
Accordingly, what can we expect? Can the global economy moves forward without them, without further stimulus plans, and without further easy-credit policies? I doubt it velllly much.
Moreover, it seems that no one now talks about the remaining trillions of US $ in dirty toxic assests which are still hidden by the american famous financial institutions and are expected to be written down soon.
Well, to answer your questions I had to call for a board meeting. It is the opinion of the CCE (Cacca Chief Economist) that we had somehow hit the DJ top of 9625 today August 24th. Furthermore, the CCE has strongly confirmed that breaking the 10000 mark this year will never happen in Cacca's lifetime.
Do I foresee a sharp drop in the 3rd and 4th quarter? After screening all conditions thru our AMAC (Advanced Monkey Analyzer Calculator) we could expect a nice drop from the 9500 level to a new resistance around 8700 during September. AMAC foresees the possibility of a further fall to the 7700 level before the return of the Bulls late November/early December.
What is my call for a bottom? A bottom is a kinda of a butt but in your case an absolute Butt would be around the 7200 in best cases.
If you take a look at our "Portfolio" you will realize that it has been customized on AMAC's soothsaying.
Have a wonderful day and stop pestering your Cacca.
"you have disabled comments, so I am emailing you.
What do you think will be DJ top ? And when? Do you foresee a sharp drop in 3rd and 4th quarter 2009?
If yes, what is your call for a bottom?"
Dear Pier, I am sure that you know that I know that you know that the global economy rests mainly on the shoulder of the american consumer spending. Those nice people in the young continent who spend so much money they dont have, represent one quarter of the world economy. And now what they dont have is far more greater of what they didn't have back in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Does it make sense?
Accordingly, what can we expect? Can the global economy moves forward without them, without further stimulus plans, and without further easy-credit policies? I doubt it velllly much.
Moreover, it seems that no one now talks about the remaining trillions of US $ in dirty toxic assests which are still hidden by the american famous financial institutions and are expected to be written down soon.
Well, to answer your questions I had to call for a board meeting. It is the opinion of the CCE (Cacca Chief Economist) that we had somehow hit the DJ top of 9625 today August 24th. Furthermore, the CCE has strongly confirmed that breaking the 10000 mark this year will never happen in Cacca's lifetime.
Do I foresee a sharp drop in the 3rd and 4th quarter? After screening all conditions thru our AMAC (Advanced Monkey Analyzer Calculator) we could expect a nice drop from the 9500 level to a new resistance around 8700 during September. AMAC foresees the possibility of a further fall to the 7700 level before the return of the Bulls late November/early December.
What is my call for a bottom? A bottom is a kinda of a butt but in your case an absolute Butt would be around the 7200 in best cases.
If you take a look at our "Portfolio" you will realize that it has been customized on AMAC's soothsaying.
Have a wonderful day and stop pestering your Cacca.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Gold Outlook
On Aug 23, in his comment Pierre said...
"dear Caccaman, do you have any vision on the future of GOLD?"
In this connection dear Pierre, please be informed that after taking into serious consideration the zombie dollar, the road to no recovery, and in particular all the nonsense of the so-called analysts, economists, strategists, Hedge Funds CEOs, traders, speculators, Noble and Non-Nobel Prize Award winners, in addition to all those who send you very lengthy crooked emails offering you free trial subscriptions for juicy returns, etcetera etcetera, I have decided to call most of my fortune tellers in Siberia, South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia, Botswana and Alaska.
Happily, the birth of a new Star in Boise brought them all to agree on the fact that we should soon expect a run on the gold. Hence, it will not be a surprise to see the 998 - 1010 in the very near future which brings the AMAC to recommend the following Options:
Conservative Followers: GLD Oct 100 PUT (+GLDVV) for $320 or less;
Speculative Followers: GLD Oct 95 PUT (+GLDVQ) for $160 or less.
Dont do it, don't ever believe any of the above nonsense, and please don't ever come back. Your own risk.
"dear Caccaman, do you have any vision on the future of GOLD?"
In this connection dear Pierre, please be informed that after taking into serious consideration the zombie dollar, the road to no recovery, and in particular all the nonsense of the so-called analysts, economists, strategists, Hedge Funds CEOs, traders, speculators, Noble and Non-Nobel Prize Award winners, in addition to all those who send you very lengthy crooked emails offering you free trial subscriptions for juicy returns, etcetera etcetera, I have decided to call most of my fortune tellers in Siberia, South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia, Botswana and Alaska.
Happily, the birth of a new Star in Boise brought them all to agree on the fact that we should soon expect a run on the gold. Hence, it will not be a surprise to see the 998 - 1010 in the very near future which brings the AMAC to recommend the following Options:
Conservative Followers: GLD Oct 100 PUT (+GLDVV) for $320 or less;
Speculative Followers: GLD Oct 95 PUT (+GLDVQ) for $160 or less.
Dont do it, don't ever believe any of the above nonsense, and please don't ever come back. Your own risk.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Week in Review - August 17/21 2009
1. Sugar
Sugar hit our entry SHORT price target of 22.15, Friday close 21.84.
2. NG
NG also did hit our bottom forcast of 2.82 thus we are now going LONG. Friday close 2.804.
3. UNG
Friday high 11.74, low 11.29, close 11.35;
New 52wk lows 11.42 and 11.29 (previous 11.91);
For long term investment we still insist on both our entry buy targets of 11.22 and 10.71. Patience.
4. Nymex
Friday high 74.35, low 73.51, close 73.89;
As predicted, the zombie dollar brought the benedetto Nymex to break thru the June 11th high of 74.31. Hence, according to AMAC we should see a + 76.50 sometime next week before we can see any significant fall.
Sugar hit our entry SHORT price target of 22.15, Friday close 21.84.
2. NG
NG also did hit our bottom forcast of 2.82 thus we are now going LONG. Friday close 2.804.
3. UNG
Friday high 11.74, low 11.29, close 11.35;
New 52wk lows 11.42 and 11.29 (previous 11.91);
For long term investment we still insist on both our entry buy targets of 11.22 and 10.71. Patience.
4. Nymex
Friday high 74.35, low 73.51, close 73.89;
As predicted, the zombie dollar brought the benedetto Nymex to break thru the June 11th high of 74.31. Hence, according to AMAC we should see a + 76.50 sometime next week before we can see any significant fall.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Cacca State of the Nat.... Gas (Update #2)
NG (Natural Gas - NG, Nymex) - UNG (United States Natural Gas)
NG tumbled to 7 year low and closed at 2.945 (-5.6%)
However, we are still waiting our bottom forecast of 2.82/2.85 (or less) before we make our LONG move (please go back to update #1).
UNG @ $ 11.51 (today's closing price) with a new 52 weeklow of $ 11.42
As I said earlier, I think it would be a dirty cheap stock to buy (long term investment) when and if it breaks our first target of 11.22 and certainly our second target of 10.71.
UNG related Recommended OPTIONS:
Conservative followers: UNG Jan 13 CALL (+UNYAM) for $ 95.00 or less
Speculative followers: UNG Oct 12 CALL (+UNYJL) for $ 75.00 or less
PS.: Again, please don't listen to the above nonsense.
NG tumbled to 7 year low and closed at 2.945 (-5.6%)
However, we are still waiting our bottom forecast of 2.82/2.85 (or less) before we make our LONG move (please go back to update #1).
UNG @ $ 11.51 (today's closing price) with a new 52 weeklow of $ 11.42
As I said earlier, I think it would be a dirty cheap stock to buy (long term investment) when and if it breaks our first target of 11.22 and certainly our second target of 10.71.
UNG related Recommended OPTIONS:
Conservative followers: UNG Jan 13 CALL (+UNYAM) for $ 95.00 or less
Speculative followers: UNG Oct 12 CALL (+UNYJL) for $ 75.00 or less
PS.: Again, please don't listen to the above nonsense.
Cacca first "Best Seller" Play - Sugar Honey (Update #2)
Good news, Sugar Honey hit our entry SHORT price target of 22.15 yesterday (Wed, Aug 19th 09) and closed at $ 22.67.
Today it plunged 3.09% to close at 21.97. Not bad at all, and we are in the money.
Hence I still recommend to keep our 24.59 Stoploss limit as it is and close 50% of the positions @ or around 20.10, a further 20% @ or around 19.20 leaving the last 30% for a good solid 18.30.
Best of luck.
Today it plunged 3.09% to close at 21.97. Not bad at all, and we are in the money.
Hence I still recommend to keep our 24.59 Stoploss limit as it is and close 50% of the positions @ or around 20.10, a further 20% @ or around 19.20 leaving the last 30% for a good solid 18.30.
Best of luck.
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